January 19, 2012
By day before yesterday late evening, it was pretty clear that I will be out of commission owing to the 'occupy my chest' protest by some phlegm. The accompanying sound and fury of coughing and whining soon followed. Amma blames everything on the laptop and the internet! Somehow I managed to get through to her that the most probable cause this time was the rather cold a/c in my uncle's car in the hot afternoon while coming back from the wedding on Monday.
'Karipatty kaapi', that venerable elixir brewed from palm sugar, basil (thulasi), pepper and chukku (dried ginger) was administered. Paracetamols were tossed in as representatives of Western medicine. Lowered food intake was suspected for the easy suseptability to the infection. So another regimen of multivitamin tablets was pressed in.
With these generous mix of medication and infection, I sat through most of the day with a heavy head. I did attempt some free association writing to go as the note for the day, but it turned out to be a mindless rant against the tyranny of the haves against the have-nots, the priests against the exploited, the privileged against the pariahs, the invaders against the natives! Considering how casually the Indian government treats privacy and how easy it is to make people disappear in this country, even my congested mind advised against publishing it. Delete button had the final say. Like the thousands of fantasies that die at a moment's distraction, this righteous indignation outburst was also shoved into the unconscious.
Though writing therapy couldn't work full fledged yesterday, reading more than did and continues to do. Along with the usual dose of the books and magazines, got a chance to read the World Economic Forum's Global Risks 2012 report. Reasonably long document, with some excellent data visualization, I was looking forward to a detailed reading, when I stumbled on the charts on page 12 of the report. These charts show how the Top Global Risks in terms of likelihood and in terms of impact have varied in this report from the year 2007 to 2012. Very revealing! It is quite easy to see that the survey is hugely swayed by whatever are the top risks world was facing at that point. So the top contenders changed from epidemics and chronic diseases to fiscal imbalances and financial problems. The survey is meant to deal with the risks over 5 year and 10 year period, so it is interesting to look at the top 5 risks that were anticipated in 2007. They were, in the likelihood category: breakdown of information infrastructure, chronic diseases in developed countries, oil price shock, china economy hard landing and asset price collapse. In terms of impact, the major risks predicted then were: asset price collapse, retrenchment from globalization, interstate and civil wars, pandemics and oil price shock.
To me, this takes away a lot of the value of the report. The experts had predicted "Middle East instability" in as a global risk in 2008. I am not sure if that report had Iran-Israel and Iraq in mind or it had actually predicted the Arabic spring, which would be very impressive.
There is an interesting and borderline alarming section called "How safe are our safeguards". Reading it makes us realize that though there is plenty that needs to be done, we have safeguards being attempted in hindsight for most of the risks we have faced and continue to face. I was most interested in a section called X-Factors which were responses to a blank space provided in the survey which experts could fill in with their own 'pet' risk. Ever since reading Nassim Taleb's Black Swan, I am careful about such out of the box thinking. I think they are far more likely to happen with far more impact than the usual parade of "risks" about which volumes can be written...and which generally forms the bread and butter of experts and consultants.
The X-Factors identified in this report are fascinating.Constant Connectivity: Being perpetually online is changing our cognitive abilities in ways less suited to deal with complexity, uncertainty and sustainability says the report. I think this is a "developed nation" phenomenon that will take at least a decade before beginning to be a serious "global" risk.
Epigenetics: "Inherited traits derived from changes in the expression of genetic code, rather than change in the code itself. Products and experiences can impact human genetics in previously unexpected ways." I have been a big fan of this field. I think it certainly qualifies a big bad black swan. Cognitive ability mentioned earlier can be considered a minor effect of the same issue. Major impact will come from the change in diet, air and water quality and lifestyle that mankind is undergoing globally.
Financial Illiteracy: The report says lack of expertise in finance will have three fold effect on good monitoring of financial services, effective fiscal policy making and personal financial management. My opinion is that we are already living through this problem. Whether it will be amplified as more mass of humanity from Asia is sold on to the lure of financial hand waving tricks needs to be seen. I think the democracy of India and totalitarianism of China will both prove equally effective against the first two possible effects. And since these Asian giants operate with a totally different paradigm when it comes to personal finance, that impact will also be minimal. However, a similar black swan that can impact in Asia is technological illiteracy. Online financial frauds, at least in India, will be something to look out for. History has always been about the exploitation of the literate against the ignorant whether it be Vedas or military technology. Information technology is simply the latest in this recurring wave.
Mega-accidents: Oil and chemical spills, genetically altered microbes and nano-scale materials are mentioned under this heading. This is indeed a permanent risk.
Mis-education: "Skill gaps and inequalities widen as people continue to be educated for 20th century economies and labor qualifications" says the report. I think becoming outdated quickly is the fate of all skills in our times. If anything, the focus should be on training people to accept 'continuing education' as a way of life right from their school days. I am not suggesting that schools should become factories, but I strongly feel "work" should be taught! Not the outmoded 'vocational training' but the skill to acquire and apply new skills continuously. I don't think even the most devoted socialist is going to argue that 'a secure job for life with pension' is sustainable.
Next: "Mis-information – The gatekeepers of the broadcast news era are gone, and the integrity and ethics of mass reporting online are increasingly unknown." Surely, the ethics and integrity of broadcast news is also unknown. Indian government is proposing internet censorship to prevent "offensive" material online. But 'offensive' is a slippery slope especially in a corrupt nation with questionable law and order situation. The good trend is that the population has certainly steeled themselves against misinformation. Common folks recognize today that any provocative information is most likely misinformation and they are quick to look deeper for ulterior, selfish motives of the "informers". So this kind of 'mis-information' is not going to have much impact, but the kind that conjures up nonexistent WMDs in Iraq...those kind continue to matter!
Neotribalism and Resource Wars are the next two X-factors listed. Again, neotribalism survives on its exclusivity and limited mindset, so I doubt if it could have a global impact. If we are taking about terrorism and war coupled with such mentality, then it is a different risk altogether. The report lists these two separately but I think Resource Wars risk is tied to Neotribalism. We have a clear disturbing example in the Mullaperiyar Dam issue right here in South India.
The last X-Factor listed is 'cool', I will just quote it as it is: "Volcanic winter – A level 7 or 8 eruption on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, which alters the Earth’s atmospheric composition, could cool the planet and, at the least, ruin several seasons of food production. At worst, it could present an existential threat to modern civilization."
Today is Rema Aunty's birthday. Operating still under American business times, I ventured out at 8 am to get her a cake. None of the shops had opened. Better luck when I returned with Amma after 8:30. Spencers grocery was open but their bakery section was still sleeping.Only few cakes of rested in their clear plastic wrappers on the top shelf. The sales lady offered us a Chocolate one first. Then she offered a 'Fig & Honey' which had expiration date two days later that the chocolate cake. We had almost finalized the F&H and 10 pieces of 'pistha' halwa when another lady entered with more delicious looking icing covered cakes from the refrigerator in the store room. There was no discount offered for the finger impressions she had left near the base of couple of pieces in transit.Rema aunty was giddy like a child of 50 years on seeing the cake. She was on the phone with some other aunty at that time. "Take a photo and put it on facebook!" the aunty on the phone said. SOPA loses!
I will conclude with another quote about a different matter. Reading through E.M.S Namboothiripad's "Keralam: Malayalikalude Mathrubhumi" (Kerala: the motherland of mallus) , I came across this line. He wrote it in the late 1940s, summing up how the royal families, feudal set up and rigid, inhuman caste hierarchy caused the meek surrender of Kerala to the British forces, "Parasparam kandukoodaika, enthu chettatharam cheythu koottukarane tholpikkan ulla vasana, nattukarude thalparyathinekal swantham swartham nokkanula drithi muthalayi nashikkan pokuna vargangalude swabhavamayi charithram varnikuna ella durgunangalum"(infighting, the desire to defeat your compatriot by hook or crook, to keep one's selfish goals above the needs of the people and so on, all of them that history tells us are the features of societies on the route to collapse)I wonder what he would say if he saw the state of his party in the state today!
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